Exploratory Team, The University of Arizona, July-August 2007
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This is only a working outline of the white paper, that will be updated to reflect current progress and team concensus.
Arid Lands Observing Modeling and Forecasting Initiative Notes:
I hope it is obvious that we should present this effort in light of other ongoing efforts. We're not proposing to duplciate, replace, sideline, or impose a way of doing things on others. If our work exposes weaknesses or duplications, or other issues in current systems so be it.
Our aim is to simply say, our region is facing serious challenges driven by climate change, and we wish to both address the unknowns surrouding these challenges, and propose a system that will help understand, analyze and forecast these changes comprehensively.
Ultimately this initiative aims at assisting researchers, stakeholders, decision makers, and metigation planners deal with the challenges posed by global climate change.
The strength of this initiative is in its recognition of the shortcoming of current piece meal appraoches/systems employed now. We're proposing a comprehensive system starting that will oversee measurments, analysis and forecasting. This initiative will make use and build upon of currently available system.
- Executive Summary
- Abstract
- Introduction
- Background
- The Southwest : Water is what drives this region
- Water resources at their limits
- Fragile Ecology of the Southwest and susceptibility to water resources
- Regional dependance and vulnerability to water resources
- Business (Business and Industriual) sector
- Agricultural sector
- Population and Health
- Climate change:
- Water cycle is changing and will even change further
- Climate change scenarios for the southwest
- Drougts are what's in store
- Drought and Fire hazards
- Impact on water resources and regional Ecology
- Planning for these challenges and uncertain future
- What are the options
- Understand the present
- Available measurement systems
- What is missing
- Modeling and Analysis efforts
- What is missing
- Where to improve
- What is an ideal observation modeling and forecasting system
- Build on what is currently available
- What to measure
- Underground component
- Lifezone (soil and plant layer) component
- Atmopshere component
- Anthropogenic component
- Miscellaneous component
- Characteristics of an ideal observation system
- Radiometric, Spatial and Temporal characteristics
- Automatic and Wireless
- Real to Near real time capabilities
- Redundant and open to all
- Modeling and Analysis system
- Based on sound science
- Simple and accurate with well characterized error/noise
- Transparent results
- Post analysis and reporting system
- Transparency system
- Scenario analysis
- Open
- System operation
- Gather data
- Analyze data
- Run models
- Post process model results
- Present results
- Engineering Challenges
- Current technology limitations
- Future requirements
Any option will depend on available information, its spatio-temporal coverage and accuracy
- Conclusions
- Re-summurize the problem and issues with current systems
- Our appraoch: comprehensive analysis system
- What will it deliver
- What will it be based on
- How will it be used
- How will it expand beyond the Southwest/AZ