Overlooking the Grand Canyon.

Models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predict a likely dry out of the North American Southwest, over the next few decades. This drying out is projected to result from a decline in wintertime precipitation coupled with an increase in evaporative demand [Seager et al., 2007). The region is already undergoing one of its worst droughts, since 1997, with a decline in moonsoon rainflall, a noticeable increase in temperature, causing widespread water shortage, increased fire hazard, and extensive ecological damage (large scale tree die-off).
Arizona is one the fastest growing states in the nation, with an ever increasing populationa and demand for water, yet lacks any option to increase water availabilty.
With this effort, we're advocating the development of a comprehensive in situ and remote-sensing observation infrastructure and an analysis system for the US Southwest (possibly including Mexico) to help in understanding, anlyzing and predicting the water cycle dynamics and ecological responses of the state to this projected climate change.

This effort is centered around the following topics:

1. Driven by regional (arid lands) science. It would most likley be a global mission, but focused on arid systems. This initial pilot effort will exclusiely look at the state of Arizona.
2. Identifying what in situ and remotely-sensed measurements are currently available
3. What measurements are needed and why? We ought to think big - this is our chance.
4. What technology is needed - both in situ and space-based?

The effort will be extended, and likely have partners in other regional states (CA, NV, NM, CO, and UT) who could help push this both within our states and at the federal level. With the debate about climate-change shifting to how bad, rather than if and when, it is in the benefit of this region to start crafting metigation plans. To do so a methodical system is needed to address the basic question surroudning this issue.

For more information please browse the various sections to the left. Seager R., M.F. Ting, I.M. Held, Y. Kushnir, J. Lu, G. Vecchi, H.-P. Huang, N. Harnik, A. Leetmaa, N.-C. Lau, C. Li, J. Velez, N. Naik, 2007. Model Projections of an Imminent Transition to a More Arid Climate in Southwestern North America. Science, Vol. 316. no. 5828, pp. 1181 - 1184 DOI: 10.1126/science.1139601