|The University of Arizona. | Arid Lands Observing and Modeling Initiative | Exploratory Team|
|Tucson, Arizona. Summer 2007|
Exploratory Team, The University of Arizona, July-August 2007
Models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predict a likely dry out of the North American Southwest, over the next few decades. This drying out is projected to result from a decline in wintertime precipitation coupled with an increase in evaporative demand [Seager et al., 2007). The region is already undergoing one of its worst droughts, since 1997, with a decline in moonsoon rainflall, a noticeable increase in temperature, causing widespread water shortage, increased fire hazard, and extensive ecological damage (large scale tree die-off).
Arizona is one the fastest growing states in the nation, with an ever increasing populationa and demand for water, yet lacks any option to increase water availabilty.
With this effort, we're advocating the development of a comprehensive in situ and remote-sensing observation infrastructure and an analysis system for the US Southwest (possibly including Mexico) to help in understanding, anlyzing and predicting the water cycle dynamics and ecological responses of the state to this projected climate change.
This effort is centered around the following topics:
For more information please browse the various sections to the left. Seager R., M.F. Ting, I.M. Held, Y. Kushnir, J. Lu, G. Vecchi, H.-P. Huang, N. Harnik, A. Leetmaa, N.-C. Lau, C. Li, J. Velez, N. Naik, 2007. Model Projections of an Imminent Transition to a More Arid Climate in Southwestern North America. Science, Vol. 316. no. 5828, pp. 1181 - 1184 DOI: 10.1126/science.1139601